By Mark Z. Barabak
Los Angeles Times
ROSWELL, N.M. — After losing the White House and nearly 70 congressional seats in the past two elections, Republicans are poised for a strong comeback in 2010, with significant gains likely in the House and a good chance of boosting their numbers in the Senate and statehouses across the country.
The results could hamper President Barack Obama’s legislative efforts as he prepares to seek re-election and reshape the political landscape for a decade beyond, as lawmakers redraw congressional and state political boundaries to reflect the next census.
All 435 House seats, 36 in the Senate and the governorships in 37 states will be on the ballot in November. Democrats are favored to retain the Massachusetts seat of the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy in a special election Jan. 19.
Some of the Democrats’ most prominent figures, including Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada and Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, are in serious danger as they seek re-election. Both would probably lose if the vote were today.
“It all adds up to a pretty bad year for the party in power,” said Jennifer Duffy, an analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “How bad? I’m not sure we know yet.”
However, for all Republicans stand to gain, the party still has problems. Polls show that many voters, while unhappy with Democrats, are even less enamored of the GOP.
Steve Pearce, a former three-term Republican congressman, criticizes both parties as he campaigns for his old House seat in New Mexico, saying the explosion in spending under President George W. Bush has grown only worse under Obama.
“Both parties tend to get there and forget who they were and begin to talk differently than they do here,” Pearce recently told a gathering of the Chaves County Republican Women in Roswell.
One big question is whether the GOP can capitalize on the free-floating hostility embodied by the anti-incumbent “tea party” movement to seize back control of Congress, four years after Democrats won power. Republicans need to win 40 House seats and 11 in the Senate, which, for now, seems unlikely.
But plenty can change by November. Last spring, Democrats seemed well positioned to add Senate seats. Today, a Republican gain appears more probable, costing Democrats their 60-vote supermajority and ability to stop GOP filibusters — though that could change again.
Democrats are counting on final passage of sweeping health care legislation, which appears on track for early 2010, a stronger economy and rising employment to boost the party’s prospects. In several Republican primaries — for Texas governor and Senate races in California, Florida, Utah and other states — unstinting conservatives are pitted against more moderate candidates who believe the party must hew closer to the center. A similar fight in November cost the GOP a once-solid New York congressional seat.
Obama was elected with the strongest showing by a Democratic presidential candidate in more than 30 years, thanks in good part to a plunging economy and unhappiness with Bush. There was talk of a long-term realignment, following decades of conservative ascendance.
But after battles over health care, a climate-change bill and hundreds of billions in spending to spur the economy, it is Democrats who face a backlash and Republicans who are campaigning on a promise of change.
via denverpost.com
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